A new poll by Global InfoAnalytics has revealed the current standings in the upcoming by-election for the Assin North constituency.
The survey indicates that Charles Opoku, the parliamentary candidate for the New Patriotic Party (NPP), holds a slight advantage over James Gyakye Quayson, the parliamentary candidate of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
According to the poll, 45.6 percent of the respondents expressed their intention to vote for James Gyakye Quayson, while 46.7 percent declared their support for Charles Opoku.
However, the results also highlight that 6.9 percent of voters remain undecided, making their votes pivotal in determining the outcome of the election on Tuesday.
The survey involved 2,500 participants, providing valuable insights into the preferences of the electorate ahead of the by-election. Both candidates are vying for the support of the undecided voters, knowing that their decision will shape the final results.
The survey by Global InfoAnalytics also revealed that Charles Opoku has squandered a 19% lead he enjoyed four weeks ago into a 1.1% lead, meaning the race is a dead heat.
Mr Opoku “led in the first tracking poll 57% to 38% against James Gyakye-Quayson. However, over the period, Charles has slid in the poll as the campaign got into full swing, losing an average 1% daily since 6th June, and currently, leads 46.7% by 45.6%, representing a margin of 1.1% a drop from 19% margin. 6.9% of voters are undecided, meaning the fate of the race very much lies in the hand of undecided voters.”
The survey also revealed that Mr Gyakye-Quayson leads in 11 out of the 18 electoral areas while Mr Opoku leads in 7%. The Poll also shows that Mr Opoku has a strong lead among voters aged 18-24 and 25-34. Mr Gyakye Quayson leads in older groups.
However, evidence shows that young voters could be unreliable demography and if they fail to turnout in their numbers as the poll suggests, this could be a blow to Mr Opoku’s chances.
Though Mr Gyakye Quayson leads among the crucial Akan group, he trails Mr Opoku among the Ewes, the second largest ethnic group in the constituency.
According to the poll, 70% of voters indicated that they would not be swayed by the sudden developmental projects in the constituency compared to 30% would be swayed.
Ironically, when voters were asked what action (s) they would take if they were offered an inducement to vote for a particular candidate, 78% said they will take the inducement and vote for the candidate compared to 16% who would take the inducement and vote against the candidate.
On the issue of the court case, when voters who voted for Mr Opoku were asked if they were influenced to vote for him because they feared Mr Gyakye Quayson’s court case could be an issue, 20% of them said they intended to vote for Mr Opoku because of Mr Gyakye Quayson’s court case.
The poll also shows that 44% of NDC voters who intend to vote for Mr Opoku were doing so because of Mr Gyakye-Quayson’s court case.
In the key battleground electoral areas of Endwa, Breku, Dominase, Bediadua and Praso, undecided voters average over 10% of voters.